Scotland Yard Issues Blunt Warning of Mumbai-Style Terror Attack on London

This is the first I've heard of this report. It overlaps with my analysis from yesterday at "Global Challenges in 2010."

See the Times of London, "Police expect Mumbai-style terror attack on City of London":

Scotland Yard has warned businesses in London to expect a Mumbai-style attack on the capital.

In a briefing in the City of London 12 days ago, a senior detective from SO15, the Metropolitan police counter-terrorism command, said: “Mumbai is coming to London.”

The detective said companies should anticipate a shooting and hostage-taking raid “involving a small number of gunmen with handguns and improvised explosive devices”.

The warning — the bluntest issued by police — has underlined an assessment that a terrorist cell may be preparing an attack on London early next year.

It was issued by the Met through its network of “security forums”, which provide business leaders, local government and the emergency services with counter-terrorism advice.

During a “commando-style” raid by 10 gunmen on hotels and cafes in Mumbai in November 2008, 174 people were killed and more than 300 injured over three days.

Officials now report an increase in “intelligence chatter” — communications captured by electronic eavesdropping agencies. One senior security adviser said the police warnings had intensified and become much more specific in the past fortnight.

“Before, there has been speculation. Now we are getting what appears to be a definite plot to carry out a firearms attack on London,” he said.

Earlier this year, police, military and intelligence services held an exercise in Kent to see whether they could defeat a commando raid in London by terrorists.

“The exercise brought out to those taking part that the capability doesn’t exist to deal with that situation should it arise,” said a military source.

Security sources said concerns had been raised by “chatter” on a prominent jihadist website two weeks ago.

One contributor suggested fighters could use automatic weapons to strike places such as nightclubs, sporting venues and Jewish centres.

There's more at the link, for example, the piece notes that in Mumbai, most of those killed were shot within the first half hour of the attack.

And recall my warning yesterday:

I don't think the world will experience another 9/11-style catastrophe. I do think we'll have more Mumbais, sadly, and they'll be launched in the developed states (and thus keep an eye on the implications from that 21 percent for AfPak).

I mention Afghanistan/Pakistan since that's the location for the center of Islamic fanaticism in today's world. I expect the hinterlands near Waziristan to continue to grow as the main crossroads of international terrorism. Just last week, the five Americans arrested in Pakistan had traveled to join jihad. And of course, it's a round trip destination, with the jihadis entering in the insurgent campaigns with the Taliban and both Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as with other groups such as Lashkar, which is said to be associated with Kashmiri separatists. For more on these relationships, see Paul Sperry, "Homegrown Insurgency."