Turning on CNN I watch portions of Palin's farewell speech. Allahpundit's all over the story. Is Palin done? "Breaking: Palin to resign within weeks? Update: Is her career over?"
Is she going national or going away?I caught this earlier, and it sounds about right:
If she wants to be the Republican Party's presidential nominee in 2012, she needs to spend more time raising money, establishing her international and national expertise, and traveling the Lower 48. And she needs to start now.But the handicapping is on (running updates):
* AOSHQ: "It's over. You can't resign from a governorship and then run for higher office. Barring some strong reason, like needing treatment for cancer."
* But Dan Riehl adds:
I think it's way to early to presume that, assuming she ever does plan on running. At her age, 45, she doesn't even have to be thinking 2012. Heck, she'd only be 56 in 2020, for heaven's sake. A Fox interview with her Brother shed some light on her reasoning. She was telling him off the record that it was eating up 80% of her and her staff's time fighting spurious ethics charges and national battles over media attacks. And it was costing Alaska a great deal of time and money.
She could spend the next eight years raising her kids, writing books, getting rich and developing any national GOP identity she wants. Bill Kristol, an obvious fan, thinks this is an opening shot for 2012. Could be, though she has a lot of work to do in a short time, if so. But she isn't going to lose a lot of core support over this. I don't think she sees politics the way most politicians do.
Folks need to remember that Barack Obama won the Democratic presidential nomination with just over three years experience in national office. Palin has now run on a presidential ticket. She's performed on the national stage, and taken more withering fire than most politicians will take in a lifetime.
I think Dan Riehl is right that it's absurd to think Palin is through in national politics. The danger is that someone even more attractive and motivating could come along and dominate national GOP politics while she's out of the limelight. But who? At this point, Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty can't hold a candle to Palin. Huckabee's going to be strong, and Mitt Romney may be the GOP's rock in the '12 "invisible primary." But today we might have seen Palin's "you won't have Sarah Palin to kick around" moment. If she stays on the sidelines in '12 AND if Barack Obama is reelected to a second term, look for Sarah Palin to be the prohibitive frontrunner in 2016. The conservative base will be looking for the most genuine conservative around, and Palin's youthful vigor, and canny ability to raise the passions of the conservative stalwarts, may be too much for even the most well-organized primary challenger that year. All of this depends on Palin indeed taking the time to polish her resume and skills. Being out of office, and free from the endless attacks - what Palin called "the politics of personal destruction" - may well be an asset in launching a presidential bid from the outside.
Here's the announcement:
I think Dan Riehl is right that it's absurd to think Palin is through in national politics. The danger is that someone even more attractive and motivating could come along and dominate national GOP politics while she's out of the limelight. But who? At this point, Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty can't hold a candle to Palin. Huckabee's going to be strong, and Mitt Romney may be the GOP's rock in the '12 "invisible primary." But today we might have seen Palin's "you won't have Sarah Palin to kick around" moment. If she stays on the sidelines in '12 AND if Barack Obama is reelected to a second term, look for Sarah Palin to be the prohibitive frontrunner in 2016. The conservative base will be looking for the most genuine conservative around, and Palin's youthful vigor, and canny ability to raise the passions of the conservative stalwarts, may be too much for even the most well-organized primary challenger that year. All of this depends on Palin indeed taking the time to polish her resume and skills. Being out of office, and free from the endless attacks - what Palin called "the politics of personal destruction" - may well be an asset in launching a presidential bid from the outside.
Here's the announcement:
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UPDATE: Mere Rhetoric fleshes out in detail Palin's possiblities for 2016.
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